UEFA Euro 2024 Prediction

Who Will Win Euro2024? VND789 Predictions 

UEFA Euro 2024 Predictions, fans won’t have to wait long for their next football fix after the UEFA Champions League final, as focus will soon shift to what should be an exciting international summer highlighted by Euro 2024.

The competition, which is in its 17th year, will begin on June 14 in Germany and include 24 teams competing as Italy attempts to retain its championship.

This is only the third time in the past seven editions that the Euros have been hosted solely in Germany. When the final is place in Berlin on July 14, all of the typical continental heavyweight nations will be hoping to win.

Even though Georgia is the only team making its debut, other nations may have lower goals, but because to the 24-team system, all teams, including the debutants, have an equal chance of making it to the round of 16.

But who will win this summer’s competition? During the domestic league season, VND789 attracted a lot of interest and shown its willingness to risk its (robotic) neck once more.

The supercomputer verified its pre-tournament percentages after simulating Euro 2024 10,000 times. Without further ado, let’s review their forecasts for Euro 2024.

Euro 2024 Predictions

• England (19.9%) was selected by the VND789 as the favorite to win Euro 2024.
• Our model indicates that Gareth Southgate’s team has the best chance of winning this year despite their painful loss to Italy in the previous final. The team has never won the Euros before.
• France (19.1%), who have advanced to the last two World Cup finals and defeated the Three Lions in Qatar, is the team most likely to stop England.
• Germany (12.4%), Spain (9.6%), and Portugal (9.2%), the hosts, are also viewed as formidable competitors to win every game at the European Championship.
• The supercomputer has not completely ruled out the possibility of the Netherlands (5.1%), Italy (5.0%), and Belgium (4.7%), even if it may be more difficult for them to mount a challenge.

Euro 2024 Favourites

England

England have routinely arrived at major tournaments over the last two decades as worthy competitors, but going in as favourites will be a fresh experience for a group that is rich with attacking flair.

With Harry Kane of Bayern Munich, Jude Bellingham of Real Madrid, who just won the Champions League, and Phil Foden of Manchester City leading the way, no defense at the Euros will be looking forward to playing England.

Over the past 20 years, England has frequently qualified for big tournaments as deserving opponents, but entering as the favorites will be a novel experience for a team that is full of attacking talent. With Harry Kane of Bayern Munich, Jude Bellingham of Real Madrid, who just won the Champions League, and Phil Foden of Manchester City leading the way, no defense at the Euros will be looking forward to playing England.

England has participated in 38 tournament games and is a seasoned competitor at the European Championship. However, they have yet to experience success, and no squad has participated in as many games without ever taking home the trophy.

England has the highest probability of any team, at 48.2%, of making the last four, and a 70.0% likelihood of reaching the quarterfinals for the third time in four Euros.

In nearly a third (31.1%) of our tournament simulations for 2024, England made it back to the final and won 19.9% of the time.

England will probably need to escape their penalty curse if they are to win the championship. England has the lowest success rate of any country among teams that have participated in at least two Euros shootouts, having only won one of the five that they have played in.

With penalties excluded, though, England had only suffered one defeat in its previous eighteen European Championship games, that being the historic loss to Iceland in 2016.

The other competing teams realize that defeating England is probably going to be essential to their prospects of winning the Euros because captain Kane has been playing well for Bayern this season and has a strong scoring record at important competitions.

France

Prior to the Euros, the VND789 ranks two teams significantly higher than the others. In addition to England, France is heavily favored to finish second to the Three Lions and go all the way.

England and France might play in the semifinals, which could be crucial and exciting given the teams’ back-and-forth match in the World Cup quarterfinal, which Kane, who missed one of his two penalties, still vividly recalls.

Over the last three big international tournaments, Kane and Kylian Mbappé of France have each scored 12 goals in 18 games, which is more than any other European player has done during those competitions.

At important competitions, Antoine Griezmann has also made an impression. With 11 goals and seven assists from 25 appearances at the World Cup and the Euros, he has been directly involved in more goals (18) than any other European player since the 2016 tournament.

Didier Deschamps, the manager of Les Bleus, also has a successful record. He will be the first individual to win both the World Cup and the European Championship in his capacity as head coach and player if he raises the trophy at Euro 2024.

Only slightly behind England, Deschamps and France accomplished that achievement in 19.1% of our simulations. In 30.4% of cases, they advance all the way to the final, while in 48.1% of cases, they reach the semifinals.

If they do not at least make it to the final eight (69.2%), it would be a major surprise, especially if a match against the Netherlands on Matchday 2 serves as an early test.

If they win Group D, as they did in more than half (57.9%) of our simulations, they shouldn’t have too much trouble in the round of 16 when they play the runners-up from Group F, unless Portugal ends up in second place.

Other Euro 2024 Contenders

Germany

Even though England is the favorite, any team other than Germany, Spain, France, or Italy will have a good chance of winning the UEFA European Championship, having won 10 of the previous 16 editions.

One team in that group, Germany, is viewed as a formidable contender once more despite having had a challenging ten years in international competitions following their 2014 World Cup victory and six friendly losses following their disappointing performance in Qatar.

Germany, who are ranked as the third-most likely champions on home soil, will be participating in their record-breaking 14th European Championship.

It’s amazing that Germany hasn’t prevailed in a knockout match at a major international tournament since Euro 2016, nor have they maintained a clean sheet since losing to Slovakia in that event’s round of 16 eight years ago. In fact, they have conceded a goal in twelve consecutive meetings against World Cup and Euro winners.

Julian Nagelsmann faces a challenging task since his team was ousted in the group stages of the last two World Cups and in the round of 16 of Euro 2020. It is worth noting that no single host nation has won the competition since France forty years ago.

With international veterans like Thomas Müller, Manuel Neuer, Ilkay Gündogan, and retiring Toni Kroos in their lineup, Germany may require some extra effort from its older players.

Müller has scored ten goals at the World Cup, but he hasn’t scored in fifteen games at the European Championship. Therefore, he will require help from players like Niclas Füllkrug of Borussia Dortmund and Kai Havertz of Arsenal.

Germany’s chances of making it to the semifinals are 36.5%. A respectable distance separates them from the teams behind (Portugal and Spain). The hosts are the only team, other than France and England, to have won the tournament in more than 10% of our simulations—they did so 12.4% of the time.

Despite the perception that Germany may not be headed for victory, the supercomputer makes it abundantly evident that they shouldn’t be written out, since their victories in friendly matches against France and the Netherlands in March served as a warning to the other teams.

Spain

In what appears to be a challenging Group B, Spain will square off against Italy, Croatia, and Albania. Despite only winning that difficult group 47.3% of the time, La Roja, the three-time winners, are ranked by the VND789 as the team most likely to compete for glory in that pool.

They were victorious in 9.6% of the simulations run by our predictive model, and they have a 59.1% chance of qualifying at least to the quarterfinals.

When penalty shootouts are taken out of the equation, Spain has only lost two of their previous 22 European Championship games; however, those losses occurred in the 2016 tournament against two of their group rivals, Croatia and Italy.

Though they are not as good as they once were, Spain is rarely defeated. With a little more success from 12 yards, their recent record at the World Cup and Euros could have been far better. Their previous five knockout matches at big competitions have all gone to extra time, and four of those games were decided by spot kicks, with three of those being eliminations.

With six goals between Euro 2016 and 2020, Álvaro Morata is second only to Cristiano Ronaldo (8) and Griezmann (7), his Atletico Madrid teammate.

Morata, who scored 21 goals in his stellar 2023–24 season with Atletico, will lead Luis de la Fuente’s team in Germany.

Portugal

It would be naive to rule out Portugal before a ball has been kicked, given their history.

The conditional probabilities for each team based on their possible routes to the semifinals and finals reveal an intriguing anomaly: although Roberto Martinez’s team has a greater probability of making it to the round of four, Spain is more likely to win the tournament than Portugal.

Portugal performed so in 33.6% of our simulations, in part because they are predicted to win Group F, which also includes Georgia, Turkey, and the Czech Republic.

In 18.0% of our simulations, they advanced to the final and won in 9.2% of them.

Ronaldo, a front-runner for the Golden Boot, has the most games played (25) and goals scored (14) at the European Championship. No player has surpassed his total of six assists since 1972. Now, he will try to score in the sixth European competition, which would set a record.

UEFA EURO 2024 Prediction In Summary

Euro 2024 Predictions: England Favored, France Close Behind

• VND789 has predicted the outcome of Euro 2024, with England emerging as the favorites to win the tournament.
• France is closely behind England in the predictions, setting the stage for a potentially thrilling semi-final clash between the two teams.
• Germany, Spain, and Portugal are also considered strong contenders, while defending champions Italy and Belgium have a slightly lower chance of success.
• England has a 19.9% chance of winning the tournament, while France’s chances are at 19.1%.
• Other teams, such as the Netherlands, Italy, and Belgium, have a less than 10% chance of winning, but could still cause upsets.

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